Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alfredo Zgaib
Author-Workplace-Name: Facultad de Economía y Administración. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Argentina
Title: Especulaciones acerca de la relación entre los estados financieros y el crecimiento económico en escenarios inflacionarios
Abstract: The  extent  to  which  financial  statements  not  adjusted  for  inflation,  in  contexts  characterized  by  increases  in  the  general  level  of  prices,  limit  the ability of such  information to affect  stock prices  has been poorly explored. This gap prompted us to design a research project that propo-ses, precisely, to compare the impact of balance sheet figures expressed in  nominal  and  real  terms  on  the  price  of  such  equity  instruments.  In  this study we contrast an outline  of this project, and its main hypothe-ses,  with  four  theories  about  economic  growth:  those  reflected  by  the  neoclassical models, the information economy, rational expectations and the new institutional economy.The scenario chosen to carry out the project is the stock market of Ar-gentina, a country that makes this comparison possible since these con-ditions  do  not  exist  in  the  rest  of  the  world.  Firstly,  the  persistence  of  periods with high inflation in a predominantly stable global context (or slightly inflationary after the expansionary policies implemented to miti-gate the consequences of COVID). Secondly, accounting standards  that require the issuance of financial statements in a homogeneous currency only when the inflation rate exceeds 100% accumulated in three years. Such  regulation  led    to  the  submission  of  both  historical  and  adjusted  balance  sheets,  in  different    but  equally  characterized  periods  of  high  inflation.If the execution of our proposal confirms the relevance of the hypothesis that adjusted accounting information  reflects stock  prices more accura-tely  than historical financial statements, we can venture that the models proposed by the information  and the new institutional economics  better explain economic behavior, at least in this inflationary environment. On the contrary, if this hypothesis were to be  refuted or, at least, contradic-ted after a time during which market participants adjust their forecasts, the balance is tipped in favor of the neoclassical model or the theory of rational expectations. But even in a world with almost perfect information or forecasts, we feel that the results in terms of efficiency and economic growth cannot be equivalent, except if we also assume that the costs of obtaining  constant currency information from agents are comparable to the incremental costs (borne by companies when issuing) inflation-ad-justed financial statements.21
Classification-JEL:M41
Keywords: inflation-financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies-economic growth theories-Argentine stock market.
Journal: Proyecciones
Pages: 20-31
Issue: 17
Number: 3
Year: 2022-2023
Month: May-April
DOI:https://doi.org/10.24215/26185474e024
File-URL: https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/proyecciones/article/view/14845
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:lap:proyec:29