Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hugo Delfín Casanova Leal           
Author-Workplace-Name: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad Central de Venezuela. Venezuela.
Title: Asignación de probabilidades y acción colectiva como estrategia ganadora en la lotería de Cupones   
Abstract: In  this  article,  we  address  the  gamblers’  belief  according  to  which,  when  the  coupon  lotteries  jackpot  accumulates,  sales  tend  to  increase,  as  there  would  be  a  greater  motivation  to  participate  in  the  game.  Although  classical  economists  believe  that  this  is an irrational behavior, for being non-strategic, the study fails to rule out the validity of this belief; it finds two behaviors in gamblers that, in gaming language, would be an individual and a collective action; the first one being random, while the second one would place the odds in favor of the gamblers. The study was performed on forty lottery draws in Venezuela in the year 2000 and, even though the data are already obsolete with respect to accounting, they are not obsolete with respect to gambling, since the  gamblers’  belief  survives  with  current  data.  In  order  to  contrast  this  belief  with  the  empirical  evidence,  current  statistical  techniques  applied  to  the  game  model  were  used  and  the  a  priori  and  a  posteriori  probabilities  of  the  draws  were  calculated.  The findings show that, paradoxically, the initial probabilities are in favor of the gamblers, but the market itself reverses these probabilities against them, thus forcing the collective action.
Classification-JEL: C72
Keywords: collective action, lotteries, probabilities.
Journal: Ciencias Administrativas
Pages: 41-50
Issue: 15
Number: 5
Year: 2020
Month: January-June
DOI: 10.24215/23143738e054
File-URL: https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/CADM/article/view/7951
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:lap:recadm:115